The Impact of Trump’s 2025 Tariffs on SMEs in Thailand: Turning a Trade Shock into an Opportunity

Abstract

In early 2025, the United States under President Donald Trump re-imposed and expanded import tariffs, including a 36% tariff on Thai goods as part of sweeping “reciprocal tariffs” aimed at countries with trade surpluses. This study examined the effects of these 2025 U.S. tariffs on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Thailand, an export-dependent emerging economy. The objectives were to examine the impact of the tariffs on Thai SME exports and performance, assess the broader economic implications, and recommend strategies for SMEs and policymakers to mitigate adverse effects. A documentary research methodology was adopted, drawing on data from international organizations, Thai government agencies, industry reports, and news sources in 2025. Key findings indicate that Thai SME exporters, especially in sectors like electronics, machinery, textiles, and food, face significant revenue loss, with an estimated USD 1.1 billion drop in SME exports to the U.S. in 2025. Thailand’s GDP growth projection for 2025 has been revised downward from about 3% to around 1.8% due in part to the tariffs. The tariffs risk erode SME competitiveness, but their impact may be partially offset by trade diversion from countries hit with higher U.S. tariffs. In conclusion, the tariffs present substantial challenges for Thai SMEs, necessitating prompt adaptation. Recommendations include diversification of export markets, utilization of free trade agreements, cost-efficiency improvements, and enhanced government support to help SMEs navigate the “trade war” environment.

Keywords: tariffs, SMEs, trade war, Thailand, U.S , export diversification, trade policy.