|Project Title:||Research of the Financial Early Warning Model of Listd Logisitics Enterprises in China|
|Author:||Mr. Guo Jun|
|Advisor:||Asst. Professor Qi-Feng Wei|
|Degree:||Master of Business Administration|
Jun, Guo. (2017). Research of the financial early warning model of listd logisitics enterprises in China. (Independent study, Master of Business Administration). Bangkok: Siam University.
Economic globalization has undoubtedly brought many development opportunities and challenges to Chinese mainland enterprises, the risk of enterprise management has also increased, and the market environment has become more and more complex. With the deepening of China’s opening to the outside world and the reform of economic system, especially after China’s entry into the WTO, the competition among enterprises is becoming increasingly fierce, and the phenomenon of enterprises falling into difficulties or even bankruptcy liquidation due to financial crisis is increasing. Therefore, we should guard against the gradual development of the financial system. When the financial system is operating normally, we should track and monitor the financial operation process of enterprises, comprehensively analyze the enterprise financial index data, issue early warning signals in advance, and inform the operator of the potential danger faced by the enterprise, in order to avoid or weaken the degree of damage to the enterprise. The financial crisis is one of the most serious risks in the risk of enterprise management. If we don’t take precautions in time, it will probably lead to bankruptcy. Since 2015, the economic growth of the Chinese mainland has slowed down, the downward pressure on the economy has increased,and economic fluctuations have affected various industries. In this economic environment, how to improve the ability of companies to cope with risks and crises, and to take effective preventive measures in advance is of great significance to domestic companies.
In this study, logistics enterprise listed companies in the year 2006-2017 are selected as the research object. A total of 15 enterprise samples of financial crisis are selected, 35 companies with normal financial status are selected as the control group, and the relevant data in the three years prior to the financial crisis are collected, which is used for empirical analysis. Then the non-financial information is introduced into the model construction, the pure financial index model is constructed and the non-financial information model is introduced, and the prediction accuracy of the two models is compared. This is to study whether the introduction of non-financial information can improve the accuracy of early warning model, and try to provide some new ideas for optimizing the construction of financial crisis early warning model in logistics industry.
Keywords: logistcs enterprises, financial crisis, firancial early warning model, non-financial information.
Research of the Financial Early Warning Model of Listd Logisitics Enterprises in China
International Master in Business Administration (IMBA), Siam University, Bangkok, Thailand